Slovakian NGO "Pontis Foundation", working with democracy-building issues, released their brief on Belarus, entitled "How the West continues to loose Belarus". They claim that while Alexander Lukashenka appears to be desperately seeking new allies abroad, the repressive course of domestic policy has continued or even further increased. However, the main question now is the gas dispute between Minsk and Moscow. Is it a mere rhetorical exercise, which supports Russia's argument against double-standard energy policy within the CIS, and forces the West to accept Lukashenka? Importantly though, the newly added export duty on crude oil exports to Belarus indicates that (part of) the pressure from Moscow is real and the main goal is unchanged: to gain the economic assets of Belarus, decrease the space for Lukashenka, but not to destroy the economy. Nevertheless, what the Pontis Foundation finds most important, Belarus is increasingly positioning itself in relation to Russia as an independent state with Lukashenka gradually adopting the previous policy of the Belarusian nationalists from the early 1990s. This patriotic rhetoric and policy, despite a persisting, deep political gap within society, forces the emerging political consensus regarding the country's independence.

This Brief is also available online at:
http://www.nadaciapontis.sk/tmp/asset_cache/link/0000015290/Belarus_Brief-How_the_West_is_loosing_Belarus.pdf